ICT Project Time Estimation
Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a project management model that is used to organize, schedule and co-ordinate the various activities in a project. The model analyzes the activities more especially the time needed to complete them. It aims at minimizing the duration of completion of the project and has the following six steps as identified by Davidson (2002):-
i. Identify the specific activities and milestones
ii. Determine the proper sequence of the activities
iii. Construct a network diagram
iv. Estimate the time required for each activity
v. Determine the critical path
vi. Update the PERT chart as the project progresses
Step one involves identifying the work or tasks necessary to clear the project. These are the activities. On the other hand, the milestones are the event marking the beginning and the end of one or more activities (James, 2001). The two will help in proper and accurate planning and thus will lead to good estimations and lead to subsequent success of the project.
Step two, determining the proper sequence of the activities, will involve proper evaluation of the activities to determine which is of higher priority and to identify the best way to maintain the flow of the activities to avoid any delays in the project. A good sequence will reduce cases of loss in terms of cost and time. This step can be combined with step one since they both entail use of the same activities.
According to Davidson (2002) the activity sequence deliverables will be used to create or draw a network diagram showing the sequence of the serial and parallel activities.
The fourth step will involve determining the time to be taken by each activity. The commonly used unit is weeks but this may depend on the project and the team. PERT model best deals with uncertainties in time and has three time estimate:-
a. Optimistic time which is the shortest time with which an activity can be cleared.
b. Most likely time, that is, the time for completion that has the highest probability and is different from the expected time and;
c. Pessimistic time being the longest time that an activity may consume.
Determining the critical path involves adding the time taken by the activities in each sequence and then determining the longest path in the project. The Critical path will thus determine the overall time to be taken by the project.
The sixth and final step id updating the PERT chart and this will involve changing the time remaining with the actual progress of the project. Delays are also indicated on the chart and thus the chart will hep determine if the project pace is good.
Risk Management
The Standard Risk Model
In the context of a project, risk is the possibility that an undesired outcome, or absence of a desired outcome, disrupts the project (Merriett & Smith, 2004). Risk management is a collections of techniques for monitoring the uncertainty of a project. A good projest risk management model should consider the project an all its components. The Standard Risk Model is one technique that can be used. It helps one to understand all components of a project’s risk and then one can base it on facts that will be able to support it. The model has five risk management steps:-
Step 1: Identify Risks
This step will involve evaluation the project and from it coming up with the risks that are visible from the project. This is the most important step because if risk is not identified, most likely it would lead to failure of the project. It is advisable to conduct the step using a group of people for the purpose of cross functional evaluation and perspective so that all the risks can be identified. Risks can be identified by use if the following frameworks:-
a. Schedule based framework
b. Process based framework
c. Work breakdown structure based framework
d. Success thwarting and;
e. Prompt list based
After completion, the risks should be saved.
Step 2: Analyze the risk
This is the foundation for the whole process. It is time consuming and involves finding the facts (drivers) behind each risk and will help one to determine how severe a risk is. Have a good understanding of the risk is essential so that the project team will get to know what they are dealing with and thus will be prepared for the events.
Step 3: Prioritize Risks
Merriett & Smith, (2004) identify this step as the easiest and shortest step of the Standard Risk Model and as the most important one. The step involves a lot of decision making since you are choosing among the risks to decide which to act on and in what order.
Step 4: Create action plan
At this step, the risk is accepted, avoided or transferred for later revisiting. The project team may also decide to prevent the risk thus reducing the probability that the risk will occur and if it does, the impact will be reduced. Another plan is the contingency plan and it deals with the risk after it has already occurred.
Step 5: Monitor the progress
The fifth and final step involves closely observing the progress of the risk. It aims at ensuring that all goes as planned and thus reducing the cases of loss or failure of the project.
For a project to be successful, a good risk management technique should be put in place to ensure the success of the project and thus achieving the intended goals.
References
Frame, J. Davidson, (2002), the new project management: tools for an age of rapid change, complexity, and other business realities. San Francisco: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,
Lewis, P. James. (2001), Project planning, scheduling and control: a hands-on guide to bringing projects in on time on budget. 3rd ed. Toronto: McGraw-Hill.
Smith, G. Preston, and Merritt, M. Guy, (2002), Proactive Risk Management:
Controlling Uncertainty in Product Development, New York: Productivity Press,
Project Management Institute, (2000), A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge.
Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute, Inc.,
