Choose ONLY ONE topic out of the following two topics:
**(TOPIC 1)**
It has been argued that trends in the stock market predict recessions. Use
data to illustrate to what extent the above statement is true or false
applying the Egyptian case. Identify the business cycle peaks and troughs.
Do you find the stock market to be a good economic forecaster? Justify
your selection of stock market data clearly.
**(TOPIC 2)**
A permanent increase in taxes has a larger effect than a temporary
increase of the same amount. Use the saving- investment model to
evaluate this statement focusing on the Egyptian economy. Analyze the
effect of a change of tax on consumption, investment and the real interest rate. Determine to what extent these affect the Egyptian stock market.Justify your selection of data for this topic.
**The paper should consist of the following parts:
• An abstract: in the abstract you shortly describe the main research questions and content of the paper;
• An introduction: contains:
1) The research questions/hypotheses,
2) The background of the research
3) The delimitation of the research;
4) the theoretical framework (what theory do you use, why do you use it, what are the strong and weak points of the theory, and what theories touching on your topic have others come up with?).
• Literature review
• Conclusions and summary: A summary makes a brief statement of the main points of what you have said earlier in the paper. A conclusion is the answer to your research questions on the basis of the arguments presented in the main body.
• The discussion: states the shortcomings of your paper and your research
• The references: you should at least have reference to 10 academic articles or books in your paper
• The appendices
