Improvements and Challenges to weather forecasting methods
Weather forecasting acts as a crucial activity in the lives of human beings. It has both commercial (determining the planting season) and non-commercial benefits (determining clothes to wear on a certain day) forming part of daily human activities. The importance of weather forecasting has attained improvement on the methods of weather prediction in the quest to meet the needs of people. These methods include forecasting for periods of 12-48 hours, more than 10 days, hurricane path and intensity, and tornado path and flash flooding density.
Weather forecasts for periods of 12-48 hours
Improvements
The past decades have experienced perfection in weather forecasting methods in predicting the patterns of weather. These include the use of computer models, physical processes, and assimilation of data into numerical weather prediction systems (Rule & Gopalakrishnan). The ability to predict variations in short range weather patterns such as temperature and air quality methods contribute to the immense change. For instance, forecasting 48-hour precipitation has now reduced to 24-hour forecast, while the 2006 forecast of 48-hour hurricane track recorded at 225 miles less than that recorded in 1985 (American Meteorological Society). There is room for improvement in the short range forecasting because of the advancing technology. There is the ability to understand cloud processes, which contributes significantly in predicting features related to small scale. Computer-coded equation has contributed to efficiency in weather patterns prediction. The equation helps in the description of how the weather influencing variables interact with each other. The forecaster analyzes the result of the model, giving viable weather prediction for the short range forecasting. The use of weather balloons has also contributed to the improvement of short range forecasting since they are able to deliver data up to twice a day. The balloons are able to sample the lowest of 7 to 10 miles of Earth’s atmosphere where weather always occur (Rule & Gopalakrishnan). Weather forecasting personnel are also exhibiting improvement in their observation and incorporation of data consequently leaving chance for the enhancement in the forecasting of precipitation.
Challenges
One of the challenges of short term or short-range weather forecasting is the ability and tendency to lose the level of accuracy. This is because most forecasters analyze further ahead than the duration of prediction. Short-range weather predictions are also inaccurate because of inefficiencies and malfunctions that might result from the interpretation machines. Another challenge of the short-range weather prediction is inconsistency in the developments within the atmosphere. Lack of adequate tools to predict the weather in a more systematic manner aids the inconsistency in the prediction thus a challenge to the researchers during their studies. Short-range prediction of the weather fails to capture inconsistent occurrences of extreme disasters such as hurricanes and tornado. This proves to be a problem to the existence of human beings thus a menace in the case of such occurrences. Ineffective communication with the citizens also proves to be a challenge to the safety of the relevant stakeholders. It is crucial for the prediction to be consistent in order to create effective and appropriate interaction with the citizens thus the development of trust. Another challenging issue in relation to short-range prediction is the influence of global warming to the occurrence of events such as floods, droughts, and tornado. This makes accurate weather prediction to be impossible. Variation in interpretation of the results within the atmosphere is an indication of a challenge facing the forecasting of weather with reference to short-range prediction (Arribas et al 1825).
Weather forecasts for periods of more than 10 days
Improvements
The improvement in the medium range forecasts largely depends on the global numerical prediction systems (Horányi & Szűcs 645). The numerical prediction system is unique in that it has helped forecasters to provide prediction of weather pattern in prior of more than a week. In order to complement on the success of numerical system, forecasters have turned to the use of ensemble methods to improve forecasting of the medium range. The ensemble technique has helped forecasters to understand the components of a forecast before they incorporate it. The ensemble forecasts work under the mechanism of acting as multiple predictions with each of the prediction having diverse initial conditions that the forecaster subjected them to, in the weather forecast model. The different initial condition allows forecasters to choose the most viable prediction since there is verification of differences between the predictions. The difference in the prediction normally depicts forecast skills and confidence associated with the forecast skills.
The improvement in the medium-range forecasting has seen forecasters extend the prediction by approximately one day per decade (Horányi & Szűcs 645). The forecasters are now able to predict the winter storms in duration of at least one week in advance. This has facilitated various activities such as preparation for road maintenance. Other examples of the result of improvement in the medium range forecasting include the comparison of the three-day forecast (today) to that of the two-day forecasts (in 1998) which seems to be almost the same in the prediction of at least 1 inch precipitation. The skills of forecasting at least five days have also doubled that of late 1970s, in addition to the skills five-day-forecast, which has resembled the three-day of early 1990s (Horányi & Szűcs 645).
Challenges
Despite the application of modern technologies and tools for prediction, weather forecasting still portrays elements of weaknesses because of challenges and problems facing the field. One of the challenges facing long-term weather prediction is the increase in the inaccuracy of the data or information in relation to interpretation of the developments within the atmosphere. This is because weather forecasting is complex and powerful thus significant decrease in accuracy for periods of more than 10 days. The other challenge relates to the chaotic and unpredictable nature of weather thus inadequate resources towards its prediction.
Another challenge in relation to long-term weather forecasting is the inability of tools to measure the extent or intensity of the disasters such as flood, hurricanes, and tornado with the aim of protecting the citizens from developments of nature. Other challenges that hinder the development or improvements within weather forecasting include availability of real time and historical data, human resource and computing inadequacies, complexion of the physical features, and inability of the forecasters to adopt and implement information effectively in ensuring security of the citizens. Weather forecasting policies and principles also hinder effective and efficient study of physical features during the prediction of weather. This is an indication of the need to focus on the elimination of relevant challenges in order to transform weather forecasting (Kodama et al 523).
Hurricane path and intensity
Improvements
Even though, the prediction of the intensity and path of hurricanes has always presented a challenge to the forecasters, there are recognizable efforts put forward lessening the weather effects. The hurricanes have always acted as a source of adhoc havoc to the coastal areas. This has made the weather forecasters especially the NOAA to be on their heels in the quest for better methods of improving the measurement of the path and intensity of the hurricanes. The improvement in the measurement of the hurricanes is the result of fear of death of more people and destruction of properties. Specifically, NOAA has made improvements in predicting the track that the hurricanes are likely to take thereby making it easy to reduce the effects of the disaster. The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Projects is an approach put forward by NOAA to guide and accelerate the improvements in hurricane track and intensity forecast, with much emphasis on rapid intensity change (Rule & Gopalakrishnan).
The efforts by the forecaster have led to the improvement in the prediction of change in the intensity and track with the resolution of the HWRFX (Experimental Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting System) increased to three kilometers. The use of high-resolution models acted as the complement of the efforts put forward by NOAA. The efforts of NOAA has effective results in the prediction of hurricanes .For example, the forecasting of rapid weakening of hurricanes and differentiating between snow and sleets has always remained a forecasting challenge (Rule & Gopalakrishnan). However, the NOAA has assured people of their action towards improving the forecasting methods through the goals that it has associated with the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) such as improving the Forecast Accuracy of track by 50% in 10 years (Rule & Gopalakrishnan).
Challenges
Despite developments in the study of hurricane and its intensity, it is still difficult to predict their occurrences. This is because hurricanes have the ability to intensify in most ways that might prove to be difficult to understand. Lack of accurate measures to predict the occurrence and intensity of hurricanes remain a threat to the existence of human beings in the regions where the disaster occurs in most cases. The main reason behind inaccurate prediction of the intensity and occurrence of the hurricane is inadequate understanding of the physical science responsible for the massive systems. Hurricanes prove to be complex thus extremely difficult to understand or study. The systems are also large and powerful thus limiting the study of hurricanes and the intensity. It is also difficult to understand the stage of cyclone development. The widening of the eye and weakening of the storms pose unsolved questions to researchers thus a challenge towards the study of hurricanes with the aim of improving the cause towards effective and efficient study of physical science (Elsner 353).
The other challenge is insufficient communication in relation to uncertainties. This occurs despite the close interaction between sociologists and weather forecasting. It is still not clear to the citizens that they should be responsible for their own safety, regardless of what the forecasters deduce as prediction on the developments of the weather events. This calls for transformation of the traditional perspective in relation to the physical occurrences that have greater chances of affecting the existence of human beings (Elsner 353).
Tornado path, intensity, and longevity
Improvements
The advancement in technology has lead to the improvement of predicting the tornado paths, intensity and longevity, something that was difficult in the last decades. The tools for forecasting the features of tornado have always advanced thereby improving their viability in the forecasting. For instance, the new technology has increased the warning time for tornadoes nearly twice that exhibited in the last decades. This has increased the safety of people wherever there is speculation of tornadoes. In 2011, the weather forecasters were able to predict the occurrence of tornado (in Joplin) twenty minutes in advance (Horányi & Szűcs 645). This is because of the presence of the effective tornado watch that the forecasters had put in place. The warning came sooner than any other in history thereby showing the advancement the weather forecasters are witnessing.
The forecasters have put in place the use of Radar, which could even improve the prediction of tornado occurrence through determining the intensity and the path. Radar works through the mechanism of sending out radio waves reflecting off particles in the atmosphere including raindrops and ice (Millett, 46). Through the measurement of the strength exhibited by the wave, the forecasters are able to determine the intensity and the path taken by the tornadoes. The radar also allows the forecasters to measure the length of time taken by the round trips hence facilitating the forecast on tornadoes. The use of radar led to the development of Tornadic Vortex Signature. This is data matching the location of a specific tornado. The TVS has helped in determining the direction of tornadoes and their possible occurrence thereby increasing the lead times for tornado warnings, increasing from a nation average off 3.5 minutes in 1987 to 14 minutes today (American Meteorological Society).
Challenges
One of the challenges that remain despite the developments in the study of tornado path, intensity, and longevity is inadequate prediction tools. The ability to predict accurately on the path, intensity, and longevity of tornado make the study of the modern weather forecasting developments to be difficult. The other challenge arises in essence that there are no systematic warnings in relation to storm surge (the rise in the sea level) that usually associate with the hurricanes. The storm surges usually occur before the hurricane hence causing negative impacts on the individuals living close to the sea. Storm surge proves to be a threat to the existence of human beings. The development of a tool adequate for the study of their occurrences in a systematic manner will effectively address the issue. Detection of the intensity or damage within the areas under the influence of forest proves to be challenging in relation to the study of tornado path and longevity (Garner 1721).
The other challenge is the lack of enough resources to develop accurate tools to measure the path, intensity, and longevity of tornado. The tools available in the modern weather forecasting study do not provide accurate prediction of the occurrence of tornado, putting the lives of the citizens at risks. The other challenge is the lack of systematic occurrence in the events leading to tornado. This is difficult for researchers to study its components and developments. It is also difficult to study the complex aspects of tornado such as path, intensity, and longevity. This is because of external factors such as weather conditions and noise towards the development of accurate information on the extent of the disaster. Ineffective and inefficient communication with the citizens proves to be a hindrance to the development of the study of tornado. This results in the loss of many lives like the recent occurrence of tornado in 2011, in America (Garner 1722).
Flash flooding events
Improvements
Flash flooding events have always acted as difficult to forecast because of their sudden occurrence. This resulted to death of many people in the flood prone areas, in the last decades, because of the meager knowledge regarding the prediction of flooding events (Millett 46). However, the advancement of technology has brought a recognizable difference between the last decades and today. The weather forecasters are able to use radar, which in turn helps in predicting the capacity of precipitation. The forecast on the capacity of precipitation helps the forecasters in realizing whether it (precipitation) will result in flooding. The modern forecasters also make use of analyzing the soil and hydrological condition of a certain locality, in the quest to predicting the occurrence of floods. These conditions have brought improvement in the forecasting methods leading the today forecasters having much potential of predicting the flash flooding events compared to the past forecasters. Research shows that the probability of detection for flash flooding events had increased from 46 % in 1994 to 89% in 2006 (American Meteorological Society).
Challenges
Flash flooding events faces numerous challenges despite the presence of improvements. A flash flood proves difficult to define since the quantity of rain or the reaction of a catchment can both fluctuate considerably from one occasion to another. This indicates that the definition of a flash flood is indefinable and variable. The National Weather Service definition relates to the time lag from the causative rainfall to a flood. The time lag is usually 6 hours or fewer, but this can differ from country to country. Inability to define the flash flood proves to be a challenge in its study.
Another major challenge in flash flood prediction is that the catchments are naturally tiny, and high-quality observational networks of both rainfall and discharge are infrequent. This implies that hydro-meteorological models are tricky to standardize, and the replicated river discharges lack reliable argument in relation to ground measurements (Ernest B. Wells).
The weather circumstances leading to flash floods frequently result from severe convective structures that characteristically expand under potentially inconsistent conditions by localized trigger mechanisms. Localized nature of the system makes the observation of these events with a gauging network to be difficult. This implies that accurate and reliable monitoring and forecasting of harsh storm rainfall events proves to be a significant challenge. Prediction of these measures is even more complicated because of the tough communication of dissimilar physical and microphysical procedures across unique scales.
Works Cited
American Meteorological Society. Weather Analysis and Forecasting. 2007. Retrieved from: http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2007weatheranalysisforecasting.html
Rule, E. & Gopalakrishnan S. Improving Hurricane Intensity Prediction with High Resolution Computer Models. Retrieved from: http://www.oar.noaa.gov/spotlite/archive/2009/articles/hurrican_intensity.html
Horányi, A, Mile, M, & Szűcs, M 2011, ‘Latest developments around the ALADIN operational short-range ensemble prediction system in Hungary’, Tellus: Series A, 63, 3, pp. 642-651, Academic Search Complete, EBSCOhost, viewed 23 October 2012.
Elsner, J. & Jagger, H. Hurricanes and Climate Change. NY: Springer, 2008. 339
Millett, Stephen M. Managing the Future: A Guide to Forecasting and Strategic Planning in the 21st Century. Axminster: Triarchy, 2011. Print.
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Kodama, Kevin R., and Steven Businger. “Weather and Forecasting Challenges in the Pacific Region of the National Weather Service.” Weather & Forecasting 13.3 (1998): 523. Academic Search Complete. Web. 23 Oct. 2012.
Ernest B. Wells, et al. “Evaluation of Tools Used For Monitoring and Forecasting Flash Floods in the United States.” Weather & Forecasting 27.1 (2012): 158-173. Academic Search Complete. Web. 23 Oct. 2012.
Elsner, James B. “Tracking Hurricanes.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84.3 (2003): 353. Academic Search Complete. Web. 23 Oct. 2012.
Garner, Jonathan. “Forecasting Tornado Path Length–Is It Possible?” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88.11 (2007): 1721-1722. Academic Search Complete. Web. 23 Oct. 2012.
