The Forecast of Trends on Digital Crime and Terrorism
Introduction
Understanding the past is an important tool by which law enforcement can base to forecast future crime trends and develop best practices for investigating and prosecuting computer crime in addition to researching all past, present and future aspects of emerging methodologies in digital crime. The purpose of this paper is to provide comprehensive research information on forecasts of future trends relating to digital crime and digital terrorism. It outlines the primary forecasts related computer crime and goes further to forecast and describe the important factors of each. It also gives examples of how law enforcement can use these forecasts to improve the possibility of mitigating future forecasts.
Forecast 1
The number of offenses reported to the police related to computers and electronic media will continue to rise significantly, thus leading to the need for changes in priorities for allocation of resources, new knowledge for prosecuting attorneys and judges, new police specialties and new training for line officers and investigating officers. According to the GAO cyber-crime report, the challenges in fighting the crime include inadequate technical and analytical skills for law enforcement; poor implementation of information security practices and ensuring that cyber-crime is reported. However, the greatest challenge that was noted is ensuring adequate technical and analytical skills for law enforcement. Though the other factors are being addressed, it is hard to settle the epidemic without technical expertise and resources for law enforcement. For instance, law enforcement agencies should have skilled drivers and Crime 2.0 cars. For effective investigation and prosecution of cyber-crime, it is necessary for law enforcement agencies to have skilled investigators, prosecutors who are familiar with cyber-crime and computer forensic examiners who are up-to-date (Rapacki, 2012).
Forecast 2
Internet fraud will be the biggest computer crime challenge for the local law enforcement, with the biggest number of victims and the highest monetary loss. There are projections of further growth in the use of advanced information technology to commit crimes and extending into new fields of economic and social life. The internet may be used for blackmailing. Attention should be drawn on the use of the internet to distribute terrorist content, for example through Xenophobia and Nazism. Another growth industry for digital crime is the fraudulent use of stolen online data. The worry faced by many people is with regards to the growing trade-related cyber-crime, which results into huge financial losses. The greatest threat in light of this is the predicted increase in fraudulent internet auction sites. The unlimited access to a wide range of global resources through the internet implies a rapid growth in different types of cyber-crime, fraud, phishing crimes, distribution of child pornography, electronic spying, narcotics and human trafficking, selling of stolen goods, identity theft and violation of intellectual property rights (Rapacki, 2012).
To mitigate threats of this nature, it is important that law enforcement agencies be provided with the resources to effectively counter cyber-crimes. This will involve appropriate co-financing in order to allow the enforcement agencies employ the most sophisticated technologies for detection, prevention and prosecutions (Rapacki, 2012).
Forecast 3
There will be an alarming rate in the increase of virtual crimes against persons compared to past years due to the substantial expansion in networking, and social networking sites. These hybrid crimes are similar in terms of the coercive characteristics found in psychological warfare. Cyber criminals have formed trusted, organized gangs to commit cyber crime. They have adopted professionalized business practices and specialized skill sets to terrorize victims through the internet. Furthermore, they have advanced in attacking systems remotely, and they are going to an extent of tricking victims into compromising their own computers. Once the computer is compromised, the criminals are able to access the victim’s personal information such as bakking account credentials. There will be need for new laws expressly to deal with the problem as well as new methodologies for investigation, prevention and education. It is necessary to adopt an appropriate legislative environment which is able to keep pace with new types of internet crimes and technological developments (Rapacki, 2012). In addition, law enforcement partnering with the ICT industry to develop strategies of countering such criminal activities is paramount to eradicating this epidemic.
Forecast 4
There will emerge computer hacker groups in developing countries around the globe, resulting in the rise of malicious threat attacks motivated by politics, money and religion. At present, hacker groups such as Anonymous engage in commit computer crimes as a collective team. The members of Anonymous rely on their collective power and make use of the Internet for communications, advertisement and co-ordination of their activities (Snow, 2011). In 2011, the group hacked into the website of an American security company and stole about 72,000 e-mails and posted them online. Cyber crime is a global criminal epidemic which causes difficulties in distinguishing between internal security threats such as terrorist activity and external security threats such as military. Cyber crime never responds to single jurisdiction policing approaches. Efforts to fight the misuse of information technology are hindered by the vulnerability of networks to exploitation and the ease at which criminals may shift from one illegal activity to another. Presently, national authorities are working at combating jurisdictional restrictions by establishing regional co-ordinations as well as with same-level agencies in order to have a better understanding of internet-facilitated crime and develop appropriate response mechanisms. There should be more centralized co-ordination at the regional and interregional levels in order to streamline the counter of cyber crimes. Virtual taskforces should also be established in order to fight internet organized crimes (Wainwright, 2013).
Forecast 5
There will be an increase in the use of computerization as a criminal instrument by current organized criminal gangs, especially entrepreneurial gangs. Currently, the whole economic value of cyber crime is not known, though the recent global corporate losses are approximated at 750 billion Euros per year. Effective law enforcement will require public-private partnerships with electronic-service providers, telecommunications operators and scientists and researchers interested in the advanced technology market. It will be hard to ensure effective protection of private citizens, the commercial sector and the state without partnerships. Furthermore, the law enforcement should keep developing insight into the contemporary trends of cybercriminal through criminological research, intelligence analysis and profiling techniques by partnering with the information technology security industry and using academic sources (Wainwright, 2013).
Forecast 6
There will be an increase in the use of global networking by terrorist groups to achieve their goals. This comprises the use of the internet for surreptitious communications, recruitment, and coordination purposes. In addition, the internet may be used in accessing critical infrastructural systems for purposes of striking for their cause through the creation chaos, disinformation and destruction of files. The last decade has witnessed advanced communications technologies with increased convergence of societal “informatisation”. There has developed an industry in which personal information and commodity movers at a faster rate which cannot accommodate the pace of traditional law enforcement methods. The law enforcement agencies are threatened from responding due to the unprecedented scale of the epidemic. For instance, there are over 150,000 viruses and other malicious codes circulating in the world, with over 148,000 computers compromised on a daily basis. The rates of cyber crimes are increasing with internet adoption. Consequently, the global trend of deploying broadband internet infrastructure has introduced new degrees of vulnerability. It is important to harness the intelligence of information and network security stakeholders in order to establish a more comprehensive and accurate evaluation of cyber crimes. It will also ensure that the law enforcement agencies adopt timely and effective responses (Wainwright, 2013).
Forecast 7
There character of espionage will substantially penetrate into the arenas of theft of intellectual property, economic espionage and information warfare. A sophisticated and self-sufficient digital underground economy has evolved, where data is the illicit commodity (Snow, 2011). There is so much stolen information, for instance to access other people’s bank accounts or fraudulently create new credit lines. This results into criminal activities such as malware distribution, phishing and hacking of corporate databases. These crimes are supported by sophisticated infrastructural systems designed and operated by malicious code writers and specialist web hosts among other criminals. Intellectual property rights violations include trafficking counterfeit goods, digital piracy and theft of trade secrets (Snow, 2011). These crimes results in huge financial losses annually. These threats will also increase health and safety dangers due to production of counterfeit pharmaceuticals, aircraft parts and electrical components. The law enforcement should actively target underground forums to distract the dissemination of powerful and easy to use instruments of cyber crimes like botnets and malware kits (Wainwright, 2013).
Forecast 8
There will be an increase in the use of technology-based instruments and methodologies which are capable of surreptitiously capturing information or destroying technological communications, information processing and/or storage appliances, by criminals, anarchists, terrorists, patriots and nation-states. Partnerships will help in identifying features of future information technologies susceptible to criminal exploitation. In addition, the law enforcement agency should develop effective mechanisms of disrupting the infrastructural systems of malicious specialist web hosts and code writers by actively identifying developer groups and forming joint action with the ICT industry and governments to destroy all “bullet-proof” host companies. Furthermore, the law enforcement should collaborate with the financial sector to actively target the proceeds of cyber crime (Wainwright, 2013).
Conclusion
The trend of digital crimes and terrorism is increasing at a very alarming rate. The law enforcement has been trying to shift from conventional methods of prevention, detection and prosecution. However, the rate at which the crimes are being committed predict a worse future scenario if the law enforcement agencies do not move fast and keep with the pace of innovations and advancement in internet crimes. There are various ways in which the law enforcement can mitigate the situation such as partnerships, and sharing information between the government and the private sector.
References
Rapacki, A. (2012). On Current Trends we Can Expect Further Growth in the Use of Advanced IT to Commit Crimes. Spring. Retrieved on July 23, 2013 from: http://www.europesworld.org/NewEnglish/Home_old/Article/tabid/191/ArticleType/ArticleView/ArticleID/21931/language/en-US/Default.aspx
Snow, G, M. (2011). Statement Before the Senate Judiciary Committee, Subcommittee on Crime and Terrorism, Washington, D.C. Retrieved on July 23, 2013 from: http://www.fbi.gov/news/testimony/cybersecurity-responding-to-the-threat-of-cyber-crime-and-terrorism
Wainwright, R. (2013). Proposal – Dealing with Cyber Crime – Challenges and Solutions. Global Economic Symposium. Retrieved on July 23, 2013 from: http://www.global-economic-symposium.org/knowledgebase/the-global-polity/cybercrime-cybersecurity-and-the-future-of-the-internet/proposals/dealing-with-cyber-crime-2013-challenges-and-solutions
